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The Doomed Ordeal? posted 31 March 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by Truth Shines, Candidate

Way back when at the end of TTT when it became clear that Kellhus would lead an attack on Golgotterath, I thought about the route he might take. Try as I might I couldn't picture a realistic overland route. So I thought he would need to conquer Zuem, build a mighty fleet to hug the coast and sail up north to get at the Consult. This looks much longer, but transportation over water is always easier than land in the olden days, especially considering the nature of the overland route (no roads, more Sranc than you can shake a stick at).

Now that I have read TJE, I'm disappointed to find out Bakker has Kellhus take the land route anyway, despite the strong telepathic suggestions I sent him. <!-- s:D --><img src="{SMILIES_PATH}/icon_biggrin.gif" alt=":D" title="Very Happy" /><!-- s:D --> Just judging by the numbers provided in the book, this already looks likes the greatest collective suicide in the history of the world. TJE says from the start of the march to Golgotterath is 2000 miles. It also says at least at the beginning when the host is trying to preserve its supply line it's marching at the slow rate of 10-15 miles a day. Assuming all goes well and later on it picks up speed after it ditches its supply line, how fast can it get? 20 miles a day? 25 miles? This is the upper limit of a Roman legion's speed. Genghis Khan's army, made up purely of horsemen who each has multiple spare horses, could march no more than 40-45 miles a day. And we have to consider that this is not just a march, but a fighting advance since surely they will begin to fight Sranc sooner rather than later. So what is the realistic average speed of the Great Ordeal over its entire length? Let's be wildly optimistic and say 20 miles a day (this is assuming they march much faster later on to make up for the slower start). That's 100 days right there, or more than 3 months. This will put them at the end of summer.

Assuming they couldn't conquer Golgotterath overnight, they would need to besiege it (I'm not sure how they can do it since they are doing the besieging in a wilderness, they would very soon run out of the little foraging opportunity there is around them). For how long? In the &quot;Encyclopedic Glossary&quot; at the end of TTT, under the entry of &quot;Apocalypse,&quot; we read the following about the first Great Ordeal: &quot;For six years the Ordeal attempted to starve the Consult into submission, to no avail. Every assault proved disastrous.&quot; Even if the new Great Ordeal succeeds in just six months where the first Ordeal failed after six years, this will ensure the doom of all those who participated, since by then it will be winter. And those who are still alive would have to march 2000 miles BACK.

Well, whatever else happens, pretty soon men would have to start hunting Sranc for food. <!-- s:shock: --><img src="{SMILIES_PATH}/icon_eek.gif" alt=":shock:" title="Shocked" /><!-- s:shock: --> view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 01 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by Athjeari, Peralogue

Good post, but I always assumed that this is the reason Kellhus had children. Kellhus knows that he might not be able to destroy Golgotterath within his lifetime, hence his sons, which will have sons and so on. As this massive train of over 300,000 people slowly crawls North, surely outposts will arise and soon more cities will become inhabited. I'm also assuming that Kellhus will retake some strongholds that belonged to Kuniuri, and this will make it so they can have a base of operations. From this they can set up more legitimate supply lines and rest troops and bring in reserves. This is a big feat, but going by sea would not necessarily make it easier. If the Ordeal were to go by sea, the besiegers would become the besieged. All of the Sranc in the wilderness could encircle the besiegers of Golgotterath. The Great Ordeal has to kill the Sranc as they go, there wouldn't be another way. Don't forget that for 20 years people have been hunting Sranc down too. This will most definitely be a war of attrition, and taking back ancient strongholds will be key to the success.
I don't think Kellhus can march up to Golgotterath and go for a killing blow immediately. I would like to think that Kellhus is smart enough to realize this too. view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 01 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by anor277, Didact

When Zsoronga befriends Sorweel on the march, he relates the first contact between Zeüm and the Aspect Emperor. The Emperor's men refortify Auvengishei (spelling?), the traditional fortress between Zeüm and the Three Seas, and Kellhus sends three suicides as emissaries to the Zeüm potentate (Zsoronga's father). Zsoronga shrewdly opines that Kellhus wanted Zeüm to declare war; the which would have ended in total ruin for the Zeümi (against the Mandate and Kellhus' fanatical, veteran armies). So maybe Zeüm did figure in Kellhus plans, but the Zeüm were careful to give no cause for invasion.

As regards the timeline of the Great Ordeal, Kellhus and his successors do not have generations to deal with Golgotterath. The No-God may be reactivated in the next few years (5-10?). While the Ordeal will no doubt suffer terrible privations and catastrophe, I think the plan is to invest Golgotterath before the start of winter. The idea that the North will be repopulated in the meantime is a good one.

PS I wonder how differently Zeüm and Zeum are pronounced, and if I'd notice any difference? view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 03 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by Truth Shines, Candidate

I agree that while the idea is interesting, there is just not enough time before the No-God rises again to repopulate the north.

Also, I think the primary reason why Kellhus wants so many children is that he's afraid the Consult will infiltrate his court with skinspies (who probably killed Nau-Cayuti two thousand years ago). Even with translocation he can only be in one place at a time, so he needs more Dunyain eyes to spot the skinspies.

As for the question of &quot;the besiegers becoming besieged&quot; if they go by sea, well I still think it's better to go by sea. Yes, they will be surrounded by Sranc if they just land from ships next to Golgoterrath. But that doesn't really matter much since all sieges involve a double-envelopment to some degree: one inner layer to prevent breakout, and one outer layer to prevent relief. Even if they march by land, they would still face the same problem. But there will be two big differences: one is they can be resupplied by sea, and two is their army will not be diminished by a thousand cuts from innumerable Sranc guerrilla attacks as they march by land (which is what I assume will happen, not unlike what the first Holy War experienced in the desert from those camel-riding Fanims, who name I don't remember <!-- s:) --><img src="{SMILIES_PATH}/icon_smile.gif" alt=":)" title="Smile" /><!-- s:) --> ). But of course this means Kellhus would have to conquer Zeum first, then build the mother of all fleets -- and maybe he just doesn't have the luxury of time to do so.

Also I have been curious about the fighting capabilities of Srancs. TJE is the first time we actually see Srancs fight when a group of them charged the Skin Eaters in Cil-Aujas, and frankly without the No-God they don't seem very impressive at all. Wild and ferocious as individuals, they don't seem to possess the skill and discipline to fight as a real army, and their weapons are consistently described as pitted and rusted. Those big Bashrags, however, look like trouble. Hopefully there will not be too many of those things. view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 03 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by BobbyR, Commoner

It will certainly be a long march, but you always have to wonder what Kellhus/Bakker has in store for this story. Look what's on the way up to Golgotterath. As soon as I heard that the next trilogy was coming, I wondered if Kellhus was planning a pit-stop at Ishual. Imagine the Dunyain's reaction when he appears in the middle of everything (using the Gnosis) and starts shooting lightning at everybody. Why would he do that? If the Three Seas caught on (because of Akka) that there is a whole fortress filled with a bunch of Kellhuses, that would really mess up the whole swanky &quot;Aspect Emperor is God&quot; setup he has going.

Alternatively, maybe he could recruit some more bad-ass Dunyain to the Ordeal.

Maybe the answer to the original question is similar to &quot;Why not just fly the Eagles straight to Mount Doom, and drop the Ring in?&quot; Because then you wouldn't have a story. view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 03 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by lfex, Peralogue

Quote: &quot;BobbyR&quot;:5dpav3ph


Maybe the answer to the original question is similar to &quot;Why not just fly the Eagles straight to Mount Doom, and drop the Ring in?&quot; Because then you wouldn't have a story.[/quote:5dpav3ph]


Well, as someone noticed last week on Tor.com the answer for this question is &quot;Gwaihir the Ringlord&quot; <!-- s:) --><img src="{SMILIES_PATH}/icon_smile.gif" alt=":)" title="Smile" /><!-- s:) --> I don't see why eagles should be immune to one ring's lure. As for the fate of Great Ordeal, the many similarities with Napoleon's army trip to Moscow seem to be foreshadowing what will happen next. This is going to end badly. The question is: did Kellhus made a huge mistake or is it precisely what he wants? view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 04 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by Truth Shines, Candidate

Quote: &quot;BobbyR&quot;:2bcxl5sc
As soon as I heard that the next trilogy was coming, I wondered if Kellhus was planning a pit-stop at Ishual. Imagine the Dunyain's reaction when he appears in the middle of everything (using the Gnosis) and starts shooting lightning at everybody. Why would he do that? If the Three Seas caught on (because of Akka) that there is a whole fortress filled with a bunch of Kellhuses, that would really mess up the whole swanky &quot;Aspect Emperor is God&quot; setup he has going.

Alternatively, maybe he could recruit some more bad-ass Dunyain to the Ordeal. [/quote:2bcxl5sc]

I don't know if he wants to stop there, but I'm pretty sure he wants Akka to go there. I'm convinced that the &quot;Traveller&quot; at the beginning of TJE is an agent of Kellhus. He must have talked the Skin Eaters (or least Kosoter) into allowing themselves to be hired by Akka. Also Kellhus must have forseen the action of Mimara which will spur on Akka. Of course I still have no idea why. view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 05 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by Triskele, Candidate

Well one of the biggest questions that we have to ask ourselves is whether or not Kellhus really wants to destroy Golgotterath. I am in the camp that believes that he does but there are plenty of people who think Kellhus is up to something else, maybe even trying to lead the huge host of the Great Ordeal to its destruction. I largely agree though with the OP, it seems like one hell of a &quot;slog&quot; to get that host through that terrain and then still have the battle of all battles still to fight with a very nasty winter around the corner.

What role Ishual and the Dunyain will play in the coming story is one of the things I am most curious about. view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 06 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by anor277, Didact

I must agree that Kellhus really wants to destroy Golgotterath. His Ordeal has (i) hamstrung the Three Seas economy for decades, (ii) risked serious disaffection at home (riots and insurrection in the absence of effective control by imperial troops and the Schools), and (iii) has the apparent support of his brother Maithanet, the only other individual who might see through Kellhus' agenda. It would be a serious eye-opener if the Ordeal has any other motive than the ostensible one. view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 28 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by Chirios, Candidate

Khellus has too destroy golgatteroth otherwise the No-God will rise up and destroy all of humanity. It's unlikely he has any motives other than that.

As for the Ordeal, yes, it is doomed, we have 6 more books to go through remember? view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 29 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by Boblin, Commoner

Even if Kellhus wants to destroy Golgotterath, I don't see if, or how, this is possible. My impression is that even the nonmen Quya couldn't destroy it when they had an obvious opportunity, since they just cast a glamour around it. view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 29 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by anor277, Didact

Quote: &quot;Boblin&quot;:158d8vxb
Even if Kellhus wants to destroy Golgotterath, I don't see if, or how, this is possible. My impression is that even the nonmen Quya couldn't destroy it when they had an obvious opportunity, since they just cast a glamour around it.[/quote:158d8vxb]In fact the Nonmen did a pretty complete job on the Inchoroi: they (i) turned off every Inchoroi save Aurax and Aurang; and (ii) concealed the Inchoroi base of operations for millenia(?).

The idea is not to destroy Golgotterath physically but to destroy the individual Consult members and (maybe) the extant remains of the No-God. How many ranking Consult are left? Good question. Aurax and Aurang certainly, Shaeonnara, Mekeritrig (maybe when he's taking his lithium salts), a dozen other Nonmen sorcerors (maybe), a few of Shaeonnara's acolytes from the Mangaecca School who also have cheated death and perdition? Of course the Consult has the remaining resources of Golgotterath (with good enough technologies to produce the Skin spies) and maybe thousands of suitably motivated Sranc and Bashrag, but I never got the impression that the Consult (of generals) was quite numerous (perhaps 20 or so ranking members?). Kellhus' Ordeal against the Consult does have an achievable aim. view post


The Doomed Ordeal? posted 30 April 2009 in The Judging EyeThe Doomed Ordeal? by Harrol, Moderator

I believe that Kellhus wants the Ordeal to win. He knows that their world is subjective to the beliefs and convictions of the inhabitants. That beiing stated the triumph of the Ordeal puts Kellhus one step closer to his goal of becoming a self moving soul by becoming a god and controling the Outside. The shortest path to achieving this is through the beliefs of the masses. view post


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